As we come to the end of the 2023/24 Premier League season, we’ll see and likely engage in no shortage of debates as football fans as to which players have performed well, which have proved to be shrewd signings and which have frankly been bad for our own sanity.
In this post I did some digging into the performances this season relating to goalscoring to help me go beyond just the race for the Golden Boot to be able to uncover who has been the most clinical finishers in the Premier League this season. So I set out to find which players have been the most clinical in front of goal, the most likely to score when they shoot, and the best value for money finishers during what has been a season that has set new records for the amount of goals recorded during a 20 team Premier League season.
Data has been collected from fbref.com and then filtered to exclude players that have played less than 450 mins this season (5 full games) and had less than 20 shots.
The players with the best xG differential this season
Love it or hate it, xG has become synonymous with goalscoring efficiency. Here are the top 20 players with the best next xG differential this season excluding penalties (basically who has scored more goals than they would be expected to from the shots they took).
Phil Foden leads the way with a net xG of +7.2 this season, easily ahead of Heung-min Son and Callum Hudson-Odoi in second and third place respectively. Tottenham, Crystal Palace, West Ham, Wolves, Arsenal and Aston Villa all have two players in the top 20 but Man City have the most with four players - Foden, Rodri, Silva and De Bruyne.
# | Player | Club | Net xG |
1 | Phil Foden | Man City | +7.2 |
2 | Heung-min Son | Tottenham Hotspur | +5.7 |
3 | Callum Hudson-Odoi | Nottingham Forest | +5.3 |
4 | Michael Olise | Crystal Palace | +4.9 |
5 | Diogo Jota | Liverpool | +4.7 |
6 | Jarrod Bowen | West Ham | +4.3 |
=7 | Hwang Hee-chan | Wolves | +4.2 |
=7 | Elijah Adebayo | Luton | +4.2 |
9 | Leandro Trossard | Arsenal | +4 |
10 | Leon Bailey | Aston Villa | +3.9 |
11 | Declan Rice | Arsenal | +3.8 |
12 | Antoine Semenyo | Bournemouth | +3.6 |
13 | Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | +3.2 |
14 | Rodri | Man City | +3.1 |
15 | Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | +3 |
16 | Matheus Cunha | Wolves | +2.6 |
17 | Noni Madueke | Chelsea | +2.4 |
=18 | Bernardo Silva | Man City | +2.3 |
=18 | Dejan Kulusevski | Tottenham Hotspur | +2.3 |
=20 | Kevin De Bruyne | Man City | +2.1 |
=20 | Josh Brownhill | Burnley | +2.1 |
=20 | Mohammed Kudus | West Ham | +2.1 |
The players with the worst xG this season
Sadly for these players however, they’d all be expected to have scored more goals this season than they’ve actually managed.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has the unfortunate honour of being ranked as the least clinical finisher in the Premier League this season based on his net xG differential of -5.8. Darwin Nunez, Brennan Johnson and Nicolas Jackson also make the bottom five. Everton also have the most players in the bottom 20 with Beto and Doucoure joining Calvert-Lewin.
# | Player | Club | Net xG |
1 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Everton | -5.8 |
2 | Darwin Núñez | Liverpool | -4.4 |
3 | Brennan Johnson | Tottenham Hotspur | -4.3 |
4 | Nicolas Jackson | Chelsea | -3.9 |
=5 | Keane Lewis-Potter | Brentford | -3.4 |
=5 | Luis Díaz | Liverpool | -3.4 |
7 | Beto | Everton | -3 |
8 | Enzo Fernández | Chelsea | -2.6 |
9 | Julián Álvarez | Man City | -2.5 |
10 | Antony | Man Utd | -2.4 |
=11 | Casemiro | Man Utd | -2.3 |
=11 | Gabriel Jesus | Arsenal | -2.3 |
=11 | Erling Haaland | Man City | -2.3 |
=11 | Pascal Groß | Brighton | -2.3 |
15 | Matty Cash | Aston Villa | -2.2 |
16 | Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | -2 |
=17 | Ryan Christie | Bournemouth | -1.9 |
=17 | Pablo Sarabia | Wolves | -1.9 |
19 | Lucas Paquetá | West Ham | -1.8 |
=20 | Jefferson Lerma | Crystal Palace | -1.7 |
=20 | Timo Werner | Tottenham Hotspur | -1.7 |
=20 | Abdoulaye Doucouré | Everton | -1.7 |
=20 | Jay Rodriguez | Burnley | -1.7 |
=20 | João Pedro | Brighton | -1.7 |
The players with the best % of shots scored
As well as xG we also looked at which players have scored with the highest percentage of shots they have taken to discover which players have been the most efficient and clinical with their shots on goal.
Luton’s Elijah Adebayo has been the most efficient finisher in the Premier League this season with one goal for every three shots that he’s taken. Just behind him are Jean-Phillippe Mateta at 32% and Alexander Isak at 31%. Nottingham Forest have three players in the top 20 while Arsenal, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Tottenham each have two.
# | Player | Club | Total Shots | Goals | % of Shots Scored |
1 | Elijah Adebayo | Luton | 30 | 10 | 33% |
2 | Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | 41 | 13 | 32% |
3 | Alexander Isak | Newcastle | 65 | 20 | 31% |
4 | Hwang Hee-chan | Wolves | 43 | 12 | 28% |
=5 | Chris Wood | Nottingham Forest | 44 | 12 | 27% |
=5 | Taiwo Awoniyi | Nottingham Forest | 22 | 6 | 27% |
=5 | Callum Wilson | Newcastle | 33 | 9 | 27% |
=8 | Diogo Jota | Liverpool | 41 | 10 | 24% |
=8 | Cristian Romero | Tottenham Hotspur | 21 | 5 | 24% |
=10 | Cole Palmer | Chelsea | 90 | 21 | 23% |
=10 | Erling Haaland | Man City | 108 | 25 | 23% |
=12 | Rasmus Højlund | Man Utd | 36 | 8 | 22% |
=12 | Son Heung-min | Tottenham Hotspur | 77 | 17 | 22% |
=14 | Callum Hudson-Odoi | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 8 | 21% |
=14 | Douglas Luiz | Aston Villa | 43 | 9 | 21% |
=16 | Leandro Trossard | Arsenal | 59 | 12 | 20% |
=16 | Kai Havertz | Arsenal | 59 | 12 | 20% |
=16 | Leon Bailey | Aston Villa | 50 | 10 | 20% |
=16 | Bobby Reid | Fulham | 30 | 6 | 20% |
=16 | Michail Antonio | West Ham | 30 | 6 | 20% |
=16 | Michael Olise | Crystal Palace | 50 | 10 | 20% |
The players with the worst % of shots scored
Not so good news however for all of these players with the worst percentage of shots scored this season. Six players have failed to score from at least 20 shots. Burnley, Everton and Man Utd all have three players in the top 20.
# | Player | Club | Total Shots | Goals | % of Shots Scored |
=1 | Ryan Christie | Bournemouth | 40 | 0 | 0% |
=1 | Vitaly Janelt | Brentford | 20 | 0 | 0% |
=1 | Billy Gilmour | Brighton | 25 | 0 | 0% |
=1 | Vitinho | Burnley | 22 | 0 | 0% |
=1 | William Osula | Sheffield United | 21 | 0 | 0% |
=1 | Yves Bissouma | Tottenham Hotspur | 24 | 0 | 0% |
=7 | Antony | Man Utd | 43 | 1 | 2% |
=7 | James Garner | Everton | 41 | 1 | 2% |
=9 | Casemiro | Man Utd | 37 | 1 | 3% |
=9 | Jefferson Lerma | Crystal Palace | 34 | 1 | 3% |
=9 | Ryan Yates | Nottingham Forest | 31 | 1 | 3% |
=12 | Diogo Dalot | Man Utd | 28 | 1 | 4% |
=12 | Dango Ouattara | Bournemouth | 27 | 1 | 4% |
=12 | Pedro Porro | Tottenham Hotspur | 51 | 2 | 4% |
=12 | Sander Berge | Burnley | 25 | 1 | 4% |
=12 | Arnaut Danjuma | Everton | 25 | 1 | 4% |
=12 | James Tarkowski | Everton | 25 | 1 | 4% |
=12 | Alfie Doughty | Luton | 25 | 1 | 4% |
=12 | Luca Koleosho | Burnley | 23 | 1 | 4% |
=20 | Frank Onyeka | Brentford | 22 | 1 | 5% |
=20 | Ryan Gravenberch | Liverpool | 22 | 1 | 5% |
The best value for money goalscorers
Erling Haaland looks likely to win the Golden Boot for a second successive season. Which probably shouldn’t be too surprising for such a big money signing on a massive salary. So to work out which goalscorers are the best value for money we collected the salary for our most prominent shooters from capology.com and calculated which players have scored the most goals relative to their annual salary.
Rodrigo Muniz ranks as the best value for money goalscorer this season at £43k per goal scored, just ahead of Luton duo Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo. While many of the best value goalscorers are from teams in the lower half of the table, golden boot contenders Dominik Solanke (£137k per goal) and Cole Palmer (£186k per goal) rank seventh and ninth respectively.
# | Player | Club | Total Shots | Goals | Cost per Goal |
1 | Rodrigo Muniz | Fulham | 73 | 9 | £43k |
2 | Carlton Morris | Luton | 63 | 10 | £52k |
3 | Elijah Adebayo | Luton | 30 | 10 | £65k |
4 | Simon Adingra | Brighton | 48 | 6 | £108k |
5 | Yoane Wissa | Brentford | 63 | 11 | £118k |
6 | Antoine Semenyo | Bournemouth | 67 | 8 | £130k |
7 | Dominic Solanke | Bournemouth | 104 | 19 | £137k |
8 | Wilson Odobert | Burnley | 44 | 3 | £173k |
9 | Cole Palmer | Chelsea | 90 | 21 | £186k |
10 | Chiedozie Ogbene | Luton | 32 | 4 | £195k |
11 | Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | 41 | 13 | £200k |
12 | Oliver McBurnie | Sheffield United | 31 | 6 | £217k |
13 | Nicolas Jackson | Chelsea | 75 | 14 | £241k |
=14 | Rayan Aït-Nouri | Wolves | 24 | 2 | £260k |
=14 | James Mcatee | Sheffield United | 25 | 3 | £260k |
=14 | Ivan Toney | Brentford | 47 | 4 | £260k |
=14 | Anthony Elanga | Nottingham Forest | 51 | 5 | £260k |
=14 | Bryan Mbeumo | Brentford | 50 | 9 | £260k |
=14 | Facundo Buonanotte | Brighton | 21 | 3 | £260k |
=14 | Matheus Cunha | Wolves | 71 | 12 | £260k |
=14 | Evan Ferguson | Brighton | 33 | 6 | £260k |
The best value for money goal providers
Granted, goals aren’t the only way of measuring a player’s direct contribution towards putting points on the table for their teams. Therefore, we also looked at which players provided the best value for money relative to the number of assists they provided as well as goals.
When factoring in assists, Carlton Morris overtakes Rodrigo Muniz for value for money. Luton also took third and fourth spot with Alfie Doughty and Elijah Adebayo respectively. From the teams contending for European spots, Cole Palmer and Anthony Gordon both rank in the top 20.
# | Player | Club | Goals | Assists | Cost per Goal & Assist |
1 | Carlton Morris | Luton | 10 | 4 | £37k |
2 | Rodrigo Muniz | Fulham | 9 | 1 | £39k |
3 | Alfie Doughty | Luton | 1 | 8 | £43k |
4 | Elijah Adebayo | Luton | 10 | 0 | £65k |
5 | Simon Adingra | Brighton | 6 | 1 | £93k |
=6 | Yoane Wissa | Brentford | 11 | 2 | £100k |
=6 | Anthony Elanga | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 8 | £100k |
=8 | Antoine Semenyo | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | £104k |
=8 | Wilson Odobert | Burnley | 3 | 2 | £104k |
=10 | Dominic Solanke | Bournemouth | 19 | 3 | £118k |
=10 | Jordan Ayew | Crystal Palace | 4 | 7 | £118k |
12 | Cole Palmer | Chelsea | 21 | 10 | £126k |
13 | James Mcatee | Sheffield United | 3 | 3 | £130k |
=14 | Oliver McBurnie | Sheffield United | 6 | 3 | £144k |
=14 | Dwight McNeil | Everton | 3 | 6 | £144k |
16 | Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | 13 | 4 | £153k |
=17 | Chiedozie Ogbene | Luton | 4 | 1 | £156k |
=17 | Bryan Mbeumo | Brentford | 9 | 6 | £156k |
=17 | Anthony Gordon | Newcastle | 10 | 10 | £156k |
=17 | Gustavo Hamer | Sheffield United | 4 | 6 | £156k |
The worst value for money goal providers
We also looked at which players have been the worst value for money ranked against the number of goals and assists they have provided this season. In the interest of fairness to midfielders we omitted players that have played less than 1,080 minutes this season (12 full games) and only included those that play as either a Forward or Attacking Midfielder.
It’s bad news for Man Utd fans as Antony and Marcus Rashford take both of the top two spots. Antony has provided one goal and one assist this season which works out at a whopping £5.2m per goal contribution, three times the cost of Rashford in second place.
# | Player | Club | Goals | Assists | Cost per Goal & Assist |
1 | Antony | Man Utd | 1 | 1 | £5.2m |
2 | Marcus Rashford | Man Utd | 7 | 2 | £1.7m |
3 | Raheem Sterling | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | £1.5m |
4 | Gabriel Jesus | Arsenal | 4 | 5 | £1.5m |
5 | Bernardo Silva | Man City | 6 | 7 | £1.2m |
6 | Raúl Jiménez | Fulham | 5 | 0 | £1m |
7 | Gabriel Martinelli | Arsenal | 6 | 4 | £936k |
8 | Abdoulaye Doucouré | Everton | 7 | 1 | £845k |
=9 | Martin Ødegaard | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | £780k |
=9 | Miguel Almirón | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | £780k |
=9 | Willian | Fulham | 4 | 2 | £780k |
=9 | Jack Harrison | Everton | 3 | 3 | £780k |
=9 | Lucas Paquetá | West Ham | 4 | 6 | £780k |
Methodology
Data has been collected from fbref.com and then filtered to exclude players that have played less than 450 mins this season (5 full games) and had less than 20 shots. xG totals are all excluding penalties. Salaries are taken from capology.com. Data correct as of Monday May 13th 2024.
Comments