There’s no good way to go out of a major international tournament, but perhaps the most heartbreaking way is being on the losing end of a penalty shoot-out. With Euro 2024 just a few days away from starting, we decided to take a look at which teams have the squads with the best chance of winning a penalty shoot-out at Euro 2024.
To do so, we researched how each player representing their country at Euro 2024 has fared when it comes to converting from the penalty spot in recent history. Using data from Transfermarkt, we analysed how many spot kicks each outfield player had taken dating back to the 2019/20 season (five seasons worth) and what percentage of them they had successfully scored from.
Likewise, for goalkeepers, we tracked what percentage of penalties they had managed to save (not counting penalties that missed the target).
England can produce the best group of players to score a penalty
Any English Football fan reading this probably has PTSD from at least one penalty shoot-out that has resulted in heartbreak at a major international tournament, the most recent one coming at the last European Championships in the most heartbreaking manner of all in a Final on home soil.
But could the tide finally be turning when it comes to shoot-out success? To find out, we took the five players with the highest percentage of penalties scored for both club and country in the past five seasons that have taken at least three penalties, and calculated the average conversion rate across those top five penalty takers.
By doing this, we discovered that England’s top five penalty takers have scored 56/58 penalties over the last five seasons - a conversion rate of 96.55%. Possibly even more surprising is that Harry Kane didn’t actually make England’s top five penalty takers. Bellingham (3/3), Eze (7/7) and Palmer (10/10) all have a 100% conversion rate, followed by Toney (26/27) and Saka (10/11). Kane’s conversion rate is slightly lower than Saka at 89.19% compared to Saka’s 90.91%.
In second place are Belgium, whose top five takers have a combined conversion of 94.34%. They are followed by Slovakia (93.55%), Austria (92.59%), and the hosts Germany (92.11%).
Not so good news however for one of the tournament’s favourites in France, should they find themselves in the dreaded situation of facing spot kicks to stay in the tournament. Their top five penalty takers have a combined conversion rate of 77.78%, the worst of the 24 countries.
The top 10 countries with the best percentage of penalties scored from their top five penalty takers in the last five seasons are:
1: 🏴 England - 56/58 scored (96.55%)
2: 🇧🇪 Belgium - 50/53 scored (94.34%)
3: 🇸🇰 Slovakia - 29/31 scored (93.55%)
4: 🇦🇹 Austria - 50/54 scored (92.59%)
5: 🇩🇪 Germany - 35/38 scored (92.11%)
6: 🇵🇹 Portugal - 114/124 scored (91.94%)
7: 🇦🇱 Albania - 45/49 scored (91.84%)
8: 🇭🇺 Hungary - 101/112 scored (90.18%)
9: 🇩🇰 Denmark - 36/40 scored (90.00%)
10: 🇸🇮 Slovenia - 42/47 scored (89.36%)
You can find the five players with the best penalty conversion rate for each team by jumping to the end of the post here.
Could Dean Henderson be England’s key to unlocking penalty shoot-out success?
As we all know, just scoring all of your first five penalties isn’t always enough to guarantee shoot-out success. You also need a Goalkeeper between the posts capable of saving a penalty or two to help ease the pressure on your own penalty takers. Therefore, we also analysed the percentage of spot kicks that each Goalkeeper going to the Euros has saved for their club and country over the last five seasons (not counting penalties that were missed off target).
And it’s even more good news for England! Gareth Southgate has the luxury of having the keeper with the joint third highest ratio of penalties saved in his squad in Dean Henderson. Henderson has saved three out of the nine penalties he’s faced, a save ratio of 33.33%, which can only be bettered by Romania’s Florin Nita (35.71%) and Slovenia’s Vid Belec (37.50%).
Obviously Henderson is very unlikely to be starting for England during the tournament, but the data does paint a very persuasive argument for subbing Henderson on for a penalty shoot-out, especially when you see how his save ratio compares to Pickford and Ramsdale.
By comparison to Henderson’s 33.33% of penalties saved, Ramsdale has saved 2/20 (10%) and Pickford has only managed to save 1/27 penalties - 3.70%. Out of the 72 keepers available for selection during the tournament, only four have a worse save ratio than Pickford. Could subbing Henderson on for Pickford before a penalty shoot-out be the England Coach’s secret weapon?
The top 10 goalkeepers with the best percentage of penalties saved in the last five seasons are:
1: 🇸🇮 Vid Belec - 6/16 saved (37.50%)
2: 🇷🇴 Florin Nita - 10/28 saved (35.71%)
=3: 🇮🇹 Gianluigi Donnarumma - 11/33 saved (33.33%)
=3: 🇩🇪 Oliver Baumann - 10/30 saved (33.33%)
=3: 🏴 Dean Henderson - 3/9 saved (33.33%)
6: 🇭🇺 Peter Szappanos - 6/19 saved (31.58%)
7: 🇺🇦 Andriy Lunin - 4/13 saved (30.77%)
8: 🇭🇷 Nediljko Labrovic - 6/20 saved (30.00%)
9: 🇷🇸 Predrag Rajkovic - 8/29 saved (27.59%)
10: 🇵🇹 Diogo Costa - 6/22 saved (27.27%)
You can find the percentage of penalties that each goalkeeper for each team has saved in the last five seasons by jumping to the end of the post here.
England have the best options to win a penalty shoot-out
So which country overall is best equipped for penalty shoot-out success? To find out, we graded each team based on their ranking for the average conversion rate of their top five penalty takers and the save ratio for their best goalkeeper. For each, we assigned them a score of 1-24, 24 for the top performing country, and 1 for the worst performers. The scores were then combined for an overall ranking out of a maximum of 48.
And it’s great news for English fans! The beaten finalists last time out achieved a total score of 46 out of a possible 48, beating out the Germans in second place. The top five is rounded off by Slovenia, Belgium and Hungary.
While some countries like Belgium, Slovakia and Austria ranked high for options to score penalties, and others like Slovenia and Romania were top performers for penalties saved, England and Germany were the only teams to rank in the top five for each.
It’s not so good news however for the teams at the bottom who might be dreading the prospect of penalties more than most countries. Despite being one of the favourites to win the tournament, France had the lowest ranking score for penalty success over the last five seasons for club and country, followed by Holland, Scotland, Turkey and Georgia.
Overall Rank | Country | Total (out of 48) | Penalties Scored Rank | Penalties Saved Rank |
1 | England | 46 | 24 | 22 |
2 | Germany | 42 | 20 | 22 |
3 | Slovenia | 39 | 15 | 24 |
4 | Belgium | 37 | 23 | 14 |
5 | Hungary | 36 | 17 | 19 |
6 | Slovakia | 35 | 22 | 13 |
7 | Portugal | 34 | 19 | 15 |
8 | Austria | 30 | 21 | 9 |
=9 | Romania | 29 | 6 | 23 |
=9 | Italy | 29 | 7 | 22 |
11 | Croatia | 27 | 10 | 17 |
12 | Poland | 26 | 13 | 13 |
13 | Albania | 25 | 18 | 7 |
14 | Switzerland | 24 | 13 | 11 |
15 | Denmark | 23 | 16 | 7 |
16 | Czech Republic | 21 | 11 | 10 |
=17 | Ukraine | 20 | 2 | 18 |
=17 | Serbia | 20 | 4 | 16 |
19 | Spain | 19 | 14 | 5 |
20 | Georgia | 17 | 9 | 8 |
21 | Turkey | 10 | 8 | 2 |
=22 | Scotland | 6 | 3 | 3 |
=22 | Holland | 6 | 5 | 1 |
24 | France | 5 | 1 | 4 |
Penalty Conversion Rate and Save Ratio For Each Country at Euro 2024
The teams ranked from best to worst with their five best options for a penalty shoot-out are as follows:
1: England - 56/58 scored (96.55%)
1: Cole Palmer - 10/10 scored (100%)
2: Eberechi Eze - 7/7 scored (100%)
3: Jude Bellingham - 3/3 scored (100%)
4: Ivan Toney - 26/27 scored (96%)
5: Bukayo Saka - 10/11 scored (91%)
2: Belgium - 50/53 scored (94.34%)
1: Dodi Lukebakio - 8/8 scored (100%)
2: Johan Bakayoko - 3/3 scored (100%)
3: Romelu Lukaku - 25/26 scored (96%)
4: Maxim De Cuyper - 7/8 scored (88%)
5: Kevin De Bruyne - 7/8 scored (88%)
3: Slovakia - 29/31 scored (93.55%)
1: David Hancko - 9/9 scored (100%)
2: Juraj Kucka - 6/6 scored (100%)
3: Ivan Schranz - 4/4 scored (100%)
4: Matus Bero - 3/3 scored (100%)
5: Ondrej Duda - 7/9 scored (78%)
4: Austria - 50/53 scored (94.34%)
1: Marcel Sabitzer - 9/9 scored (100%)
2: Marco Grull - 22/23 scored (96%)
3: Florian Kainz - 9/10 scored (90%)
4: Marko Arnautovic - 8/9 scored (89%)
5: Michael Gregoritsch - 2/3 scored (67%)
5: Germany - 35/38 scored (92.11%)
1: Niclas Fullkrug - 14/14 scored (100%)
2: Joshua Kimmich - 3/3 scored (100%)
3: Kai Havertz - 8/9 scored (89%)
4: Deniz Undav - 7/8 scored (88%)
5: Thomas Muller - 3/4 scored (75%)
6: Portugal - 114/124 scored (91.94%)
1: Ruben Neves - 11/11 scored (100%)
2: Vitinha - 6/6 scored (100%)
3: Goncalo Ramos - 5/5 scored (100%)
4: Bruno Fernandes - 40/44 scored (91%)
5: Cristiano Ronaldo - 52/58 scored (90%)
7: Albania - 45/49 scored (91.84%)
1: Jasir Asani - 4/4 scored (100%)
2: Nedim Bajrami - 3/3 scored (100%)
3: Taulant Seferi - 13/14 scored (93%)
4: Mirlind Daku - 9/10 scored (90%)
5: Rey Manaj - 16/18 scored (89%)
8: Hungary - 101/112 scored (90.18%)
1: Krisztofer Horvath - 15/15 scored (100%)
2: Daniel Gazdag - 35/37 scored (95%)
3: Martin Adam - 15/16 scored (94%)
4: Dominik Szoboszlai - 14/15 scored (93%)
5: Barnabas Varga - 22/29 scored (76%)
9: Denmark - 36/40 scored (90.00%)
1: Kasper Dolberg - 8/8 scored (100%)
2: Anders Dreyer - 5/5 scored (100%)
3: Christian Eriksen - 4/4 scored (100%)
4: Jonas Wind - 16/19 scored (84%)
5: Andreas Skov Olsen - 3/4 scored (100%)
10: Slovenia - 42/47 scored (89.36%)
1: Timi Max Elsnik - 7/7 scored (100%)
2: Jan Mlakar - 5/5 scored (100%)
3: Benjamin Sesko - 5/5 scored (100%)
4: Jasmin Kurtic - 12/14 scored (86%)
5: Josip Ilicic - 13/16 scored (81%)
11: Spain - 41/46 scored (89.13%)
1: Nico Williams - 5/5 scored (100%)
2: Rodri - 3/3 scored (100%)
3: Dani Olmo - 3/3 scored (100%)
4: Mikel Oayrzabal - 27/31 scored (87%)
5: Ferran Torres - 3/4 scored (75%)
12: Poland - 62/70 scored (88.57%)
1: Jakub Moder - 4/4 scored (100%)
2: Robert Lewandowski - 34/38 scored (89%)
3: Adam Busa - 7/8 scored (88%)
4: Karol Swiderski - 6/7 scored (86%)
5: Kamil Grosicki - 11/13 scored (85%)
13: Switzerland - 31/35 scored (88.57%)
1: Xherdan Shaqiri - 10/10 scored (100%)
2: Zeki Amdouni - 6/6 scored (100%)
3: Fabian Rieder - 3/3 scored (100%)
4: Kwadwo Duah - ⅞ scored (88%)
5: Vincent Sierro - 5/8 scored (63%)
14: Czech Republic - 38/43 scored (88.37)
1: Antonin Barak - 5/5 scored (100%)
2: Lukas Cerv - 4/4 scored (100%)
3: Ladislav Krejci - 13/14 scored (93%)
4: Mojmir Chytil - 5/6 scored (83%)
5: Tomas Chory - 11/14 scored (79%)
15: Croatia - 75/85 scored (88.24%)
1: Lovro Majer - 4/4 scored (100%)
2: Andrej Kramaric - 22/24 scored (92%)
3: Luka Sucic - 10/11 scored (91%)
4: Ante Budimir - 7/8 scored (88%)
5: Bruno Petkovic - 32/38 scored (84%)
16: Georgia - 55/63 scored (87.30%)
1: Giorgi Mikautadze - 20/21 scored (95%)
2: Giorgi Gvelesiani - 14/16 scored (88%)
3: Giorgi Kvilitaia - 15/18 scored (83%)
4: Zuriko Davitashvili - 3/4 scored (75%)
5: Otar Kiteishvili - 3/4 scored (75%)
17: Turkey - 54/62 scored (87.10%)
1: Hakan Calhanoglu - 23/24 scored (96%)
2: Yusuf Yazici - 9/10 scored (90%)
3: Orkun Kokcu - 8/9 scored (89%)
4: Kerem Akturkoglu - 8/10 scored (80%)
5: Cenk Tosun - 6/9 scored (67%)
18: Italy - 48/56 scored (85.71%)
1: Mateo Retegui - 13/13 scored (100%)
2: Mattia Zaccagni - 4/4 scored (100%)
3: Gianluca Scamacca - 3/3 scored (100%)
4: Nicolo Fagioli - 4/5 scored (80%)
5: Jorginho - 24/31 scored (77%)
19: Romania - 33/39 scored (84.62%)
1: Andre Burca - 4/4 scored (100%)
2: Alexandru Cicaldau - 12/14 scored (86%)
3: George Puscas - 6/7 scored (86%)
4: Darius Olaru - 4/5 scored (80%)
5: Dennis Man - 7/9 scored (78%)
20: Holland - 71/84 scored (84.52%)
1: Steven Bergwijn - 9/9 scored (100%)
2: Denzel Dumfries - 3/3 scored (100%)
3: Memphis Depay - 24/29 scored (83%)
4: Teun Koopmeiners - 31/38 scored (82%)
5: Cody Gakpo - 4/5 scored (80%)
21: Serbia - 68/82 scored (82.93%)
1: Veljko Birmancevic - 5/5 scored (100%)
2: Sasa Lukic - 4/4 scored (100%)
3: Dusan Vlahovic - 18/22 scored (82%)
4: Dusan Tadic - 38/47 scored (81%)
5: Andrija Zivkovic - 3/4 scored (75%)
22: Scotland - 48/58 scored (82.76%)
1: Tommy Conway - 8/8 scored (100%)
2: Lewis Morgan - 8/9 scored (89%)
3: Lawrence Shankland - 22/27 scored (81%)
4: Ryan Christie - 7/9 scored (78%)
5: Callum McGregor - 3/5 scored (60%)
23: Ukraine - 52/63 scored (82.54%)
1: Volodymyr Brazhko - 4/4 scored (100%)
2: Vladyslav Vanat - 3/3 scored (100%)
3: Heorhiy Sudakov - 6/7 scored (86%)
4: Artem Dovbyk - 22/26 scored (85%)
5: Viktor Tsyhankov - 17/23 scored (74%)
24: France - 63/81 scored (77.78%)
1: Randal Kolo Muani - 3/3 scored (100%)
2: Kylian Mbappe - 36/44 scored (82%)
3: Olivier Giroud - 13/16 scored (81%)
4: Theo Hernandez - 4/6 scored (67%)
5: Antoine Griezmann - 7/12 scored (58%)
This is how each country’s goalkeeping options rank for their ratio of penalties saved:
Albania
1: Etrit Berisha - 4/19 saved (21.05%)
2: Elhan Kastrati - 2/12 saved (16.67%)
3: Thomas Strakosha - 1/15 saved (6.67%)
Austria
1: Heinz Linder - 7/30 saved (23.33%)
2: Patrick Pentz - 2/14 saved (14.29%)
3: Niklas Hendl - 0/20 saved (0.00%)
Belgium
1: Koen Casteels - 7/26 saved (26.92%)
2: Matz Sels - 2/28 saved (7.14%)
3: Thomas Kaminski - 0/17 saved (0.00%)
Croatia
1: Nediljko Labrovic - 6/20 saved (30.00%)
2: Dominik Livakovic - 7/28 saved (25.00%)
3: Ivica Ivusic - 5/22 saved (22.73%)
Czech Republic
1: Jindrich Stanek - 4/16 saved (25.00%)
2: Vitezslav Jaros - 2/10 saved (20.00%)
3: Matej Kovar - 1/9 saved (11.11%)
Denmark
1: Kasper Schmeichel - 8/38 saved (21.05%)
2: Mads Hermansen - 2/10 saved (20.00%)
3: Frederik Ronnow - 3/21 saved (14.29%)
England
1: Dean Henderson - 3/9 saved (33.33%)
2: Aaron Ramsdale - 2/20 saved (10.00%)
3: Jordan Pickfrod - 1/27 saved (3.70%)
France
1: Mike Maignan - 6/34 saved (17.65%)
2: Brice Samba - 4/27 saved (14.81%)
3: Alphonse Areola - 1/19 saved (5.26%)
Georgia
1: Girogi Mamardashvili - 5/22 saved (22.73%)
2: Giorgi Loria - 6/27 saved (22.22%)
3: Luka Gugeshashvili - 1/18 saved (5.56%)
Germany
1: Oliver Baumann - 10/30 saved (33.33%)
2: Marc-Andre ter Stegen - 4/36 saved (11.11%)
3: Manuel Neuer - 2/21 saved (9.52%)
Holland
1: Bart Verbruggen - 1/12 saved (8.33%)
2: Justin Bijlow - 1/20 saved (5.00%)
3: Mark Flekken - 0/14 saved (0.00%)
Hungary
1: Peter Szappanos - 6/19 saved (31.58%)
2: Denes Dibusz - 5/25 saved (14.29%)
3: Peter Gulacsi - 1/18 saved (5.56%)
Italy
1: Gianluigi Donnarumma - 11/33 saved (33.33%)
2: Alex Meret - 5/20 saved (25.00%)
3: Guglielmo Vicario - 4/27 saved (14.81%)
Poland
1: Marcin Bulka - 4/15 saved (26.67%)
2: Wojciech Szczesny - 9/38 saved (23.68%)
3: Lukasz Skorupski - 7/37 saved (18.92%)
Portugal
1: Diogo Costa - 6/22 saved (27.27%)
2: Rui Patricio - 5/27 saved (18.52%)
3: Jose Sa - 5/25 saved (14.29%)
Romania
1: Florin Nita - 10/28 saved (35.71%)
2: Horatiu Moldovan - 2/15 saved (13.33%)
3: Stefan Tarnovanu - 1/28 saved (3.57%)
Scotland
1: Zander Clark - 4/23 saved (17.39%)
2: Angus Gunn - 3/19 saved (15.79%)
3: Liam Kelly - 4/29 saved (13.79%)
Serbia
1: Predrag Rajkovic - 8/29 saved (27.59%)
2: Djorde Petrovic - 6/29 saved (20.69%)
3: Vanja Milinkovic-Savic - 1/21 saved (4.76%)
Slovakia
1: Henrich Ravas - 4/15 saved (26.67%)
2: Martin Dubravka - 2/14 saved (14.29%)
3: Marek Rodak - 1/10 saved (10.00%)
Slovenia
1: Vid Belec - 6/16 saved (37.50%)
2: Jan Oblak - 3/24 saved (12.50%)
3: Igor Vekic - 1/11 saved (9.09%)
Spain
1: Alex Remiro - 5/26 saved (19.23%)
2: Unai Simon - 3/25 saved (12.00%)
3: David Raya - 2/20 saved (10.00%)
Switzerland
1: Yann Sommer - 8/31 saved (25.81%)
2: Gregor Kobel - 6/29 saved (20.69%)
3: Yvon Mvogo - 1/19 saved (5.26%)
Turkey
1: Altay Bayindir - 3/23 saved (13.04%)
2: Ugurcan Cakir - 5/42 saved (11.90%)
3: Mert Gunok - 2/24 saved (8.33%)
Ukraine
1: Andriy Lunin - 4/13 saved (30.77%)
2: Heorhiy Bushchan - 4/21 saved (19.05%)
3: Anatoliy Trubin - 1/15 saved (6.67%)
Methodology
The penalty records for every player named in all 24 squads playing at Euro 2024 as of June 10th were collected from Transfermarkt. Only penalties from the last five seasons, dating back to 2019/20, were collected to focus on recency bias. Records include totals for both club and country. Penalties in shoot-outs not included.
For the top five penalty takers for each country only players that have taken 3+ penalties in the last five seasons were included to avoid anomalies.
The full dataset of penalty records for each player can be found here.
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